South Asia's Ecosystems Are a Net Carbon Sink, But the Region Is a Major Net GHG Source to the Atmosphere

Jain, A K and Seshadri, S and Anand, J and Chandra, N and Patra, P K and Canadell, J G and Chhabra, A and Ciais, P and Gilani, H and Gumma, M K and Kondo, M and Lokupitiya, E and Pan, N and Shrestha, H L and Siddiqui, B N and Tian, H and Tiwari, Y K (2025) South Asia's Ecosystems Are a Net Carbon Sink, But the Region Is a Major Net GHG Source to the Atmosphere. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 39 (4). pp. 1-19. ISSN 0886-6236

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Abstract

As part of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes-2 (RECCAP-2) project of the Global Carbon Project, here we estimate the GHG budgets (anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks) for the South Asia (SA) region as a whole and each country (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) for the decade of 2010–2019 (2010s). Countries in the region are experiencing a rapid rise in fossil fuel consumption and demand for agricultural land, leading to increased deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions. This study synthesizes top-down (TD) and bottom-up (BU) dynamic global vegetation model results, BU GHG inventories, ground-based observation upscaling, and direct emissions for major GHGs. The fluxes for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) analyzed include fossil fuel emissions, net biome productivity, land use change, inland waters, wetlands, and upland and submerged soils. Our analysis shows that the overall total GHG emissions contributed to a net increase of 34%–43% during the 2010s compared to the 2000s, primarily driven by industrial activities. However, terrestrial ecosystems acted as a notable exception by serving as a CO2 sink in the 2010s, effectively sequestering atmospheric carbon. The sink was significantly smaller than overall carbon emissions. Overall, the 2010s GHG emissions based on BU and TD were 4,517 ± 639.8 and 4,532 ± 807.5 Tg CO2 eq, with CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions of 2165.2 ± 297.1, 1,404 ± 95.9, and 712 ± 466 Tg CO2 eq based on BU models 2,125 ± 515.1, 1,531 ± 205.2, and 876 ± 446.0 Tg CO2 eq based on TD models. Total emissions from SA in the 2010s accounted for approximately 8% of the global share. The terrestrial CO2 sinks estimated by the BU and TD models were 462.9 ± 195.5 and 210.0 ± 630.4 Tg CO2, respectively. Among the SA countries, India was the largest emitter contributing to 80% of the region's total GHG emissions, followed by Pakistan (10%) and Bangladesh (7%).

Item Type:	Article
Divisions:	Global Research Program - Resilient Farm and Food Systems
CRP:	UNSPECIFIED
Uncontrolled Keywords:	GHG budgets, ecosystems, carbon emissions, south asia
Subjects:	Others > GIS Techniques/Remote Sensing Others > South Asia
Depositing User:	Mr Nagaraju T
Date Deposited:	29 Apr 2025 08:32
Last Modified:	29 Apr 2025 08:32
URI:	http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/13055
Official URL:	https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/1...
Projects:	UNSPECIFIED
Funders:	UNSPECIFIED
Acknowledgement:	We gratefully thank the following data providers and model developers for their continuous efforts and for sharing their data: the Global Carbon Project (GCP); Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment Pricesses 2 (RECCAP‐2); and the TRENDY experiment version 11, which included the models CABLE POP, CLASSIC, CLM5, DLEM, IBIS, ISAM, JSBACH, JULES, LPJ, LJP‐GUESS, LPX‐Bern, OCN, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, VISIT, and YJB. We thank Z. Deng of Tsinghua University and L. Hu of Zhejiang University for their assistance in compiling the UNFCCC emission inventory data. We also thank Pengyue Du for data compilation and figure preparation. AK Jain and S Seshadri are partly supported by the NASA LCLUC Program (award 80NSSC24K0920). AK Jain also acknowledged a NASA project (80NSSC22K1363) for supporting travel to a meeting in India on LCLUC in South Asian. NC and PKP are supported by the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS‐II) project (Grant JPMXD1420318865) and the Environmental and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF21S20800) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan.
Links:	Google Scholar

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