Islam, S and Cenacchi, N and Sulser, T B and Gbegbelegbe, S and Hareau, G and Kleinwechter, U and Mason-D'Croz, D and Nedumaran, S and Robertson, R and Robinson, S and Wiebe, K (2016) Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security. Global Food Security, 10 (-). pp. 63-70. ISSN 22119124
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Abstract
Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic trends, thus providing a more accurate picture of how agriculture and the food system may be affected in the coming decades. We review and analyze the literature on this structural approach and present a case study that follows this methodology, explicitly modeling drought and heat tolerant crop varieties. We show that yield gains from adoption of these varieties differ by technology and region, but are generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) adverse effects of climate change. However, yield increases over the projection period are dominated by the effects of growth in population, income, and general productivity, highlighting the importance of joint assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Divisions: | RP-Market Institutions and Policies |
| CRP: | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Structural approach; Agricultural productivity; Yields; Climate change; Adaptation; Global food security; Crop technologies |
| Subjects: | Others > Climate Change Others > Food Security |
| Depositing User: | Mr Ramesh K |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Oct 2016 04:58 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Dec 2016 05:49 |
| URI: | http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/9715 |
| Official URL: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2016.08.003 |
| Projects: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Funders: | CGIAR Research Program on PIM, CGIAR Research Program on CCAFS and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
| Acknowledgement: | This work was done as part of the Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Program, with funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) (Program Participant Agreement no. CRP-137-11), and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant no. is OPP1009468). Comments from two anonymous reviewers on an earlier draft are gratefully acknowledged. |
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