An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change

Kadiyala, M D M and Nedumaran, S and Singh, P and Chukka, S and Irshad, M A and Bantilan, M C S (2015) An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change. Science of The Total Environment, 521–52. pp. 123-134. ISSN 0048-9697

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Abstract

The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980–2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040–69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4 °C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60 days after sowing.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions:	RP-Market Institutions and Policies
CRP:	CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Climate change factors; Crop simulation; DSSAT; Virtual cultivars; Yield
Subjects:	Others > Climate Change
Depositing User:	Mr Ramesh K
Date Deposited:	10 Jul 2015 08:21
Last Modified:	18 Oct 2016 09:55
URI:	http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/8857
Official URL:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.097
Projects:	UNSPECIFIED
Funders:	UNSPECIFIED
Acknowledgement:	UNSPECIFIED
Links:	Google Scholar

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