Nedumaran, S and Abinaya, P and Bantilan, M C S (2013) Sorghum and Millets Futures in Asia under Changing Socio-economic and Climate Scenarios, Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series Number 2. [Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series]
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Abstract
The foremost determinants of agricultural production in much of the developing world are weather conditions and water availability, both of which are susceptible to the vagaries of climate. Any policy interventions that might make a difference to the global food situation in the future, but coupled with the harmful effects of climate change, the full benefits of these reforms may not be passed on to the wider agricultural community. In this report, we analyse the plausible futures of dryland cereals, namely millet and sorghum, under alternative policy and climate scenarios to assess the direction and probable magnitude of the change in supply and world prices of these cereals, particularly in the semi-arid tropics of Asia. We also examine the impact of the policy scenarios on human welfare such as child malnutrition and per capita calorie intake across countries. The human populations of the dryland live in increasing insecurity due to land degradation and desertification. Livelihood of the people in the dryland tropics will be affected by climate change if no measure is taken to check its disastrous implications on dryland farming. Various adaptation strategies are required to manage the possible risks that the agricultural population might face due to the impact of growing population and climate change. Diversification into livestock production is one viable alternative available to cushion the income losses from falling cereal demand. Income plays a major role in removing the constraints for adopting new technologies and enhancing accessibility to them. Changing consumption pattern is significant fallout of the rise in middle income group which prefers livestock products to cereals. Sorghum and millet having traits most suited for dryland farming will satisfy the growing food and feed demand than any other crop, being able to withstand water scarcity and rising temperatures. Indeed, the following analysis shows these cereals to be more resilient to climate change than maize, a substitute for these crops.
| Item Type: | Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series |
|---|---|
| Divisions: | UNSPECIFIED |
| CRP: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Series Name: | Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series 2 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Dryland cereals; foresight and projections; IMPACT model; Climate change |
| Subjects: | Mandate crops > Millets Mandate crops > Sorghum |
| Depositing User: | Siva Shankar |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Jan 2013 04:21 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Apr 2015 04:56 |
| URI: | http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/6427 |
| Acknowledgement: | UNSPECIFIED |
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