Vijayakumar, S and Nayak, A K and Ramaraj, A P and Swain, C K and Geethalakshmi, V and Pazhanivelan, S and Tripathi, R and Sudarmanian, N S (2021) Rainfall and temperature projections and their impact assessment using CMIP5 models under different RCP scenarios for the eastern coastal region of India. Current Science (TSI), 121 (2). pp. 222-232. ISSN 0011-3891
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Trend analysis of annual rainfall over the coastal districts of Odisha, India showed statistically nonsignificant increasing trend in all districts, except Ganjam. Whereas the maximum and minimum temperature showed significant increasing trend. Warming in these districts is mainly due to increasing minimum temperature during summer and rainy season, and maximum temperature during winter. Future climate projection results revealed, the annual mean rainfall is expected to change by 0.1–2.2%, –0.3–0.7% and 1.5–3.2% (RCP 4.5), and 3.6–7.9%, 3.7–6.6% and 8.5–14% (RCP 8.5) during the near (2011–39), mid (2040–69) and late (2070–99) centuries respectively. Anticipate climate change will have a marginal impact on total rainfall, and a major impact on its distribution. The annual mean minimum temperature is expected to increase by 0.60–0.73°C, 0.71–0.88°C, 1.20–1.42°C (RCP 4.5), and 1.77–2.14°C, 1.56–1.68°C, 3.06–3.73°C (RCP 8.5) during near, mid and late centuries respectively. Similarly, the annual mean maximum temperature is expected to increase by 0.61–0.66°C, 0.68–0.72°C and 1.35–1.55°C (RCP 4.5), and 1.79–1.97°C, 1.73–2.01°C and 3.08–3.44°C (RCP 8.5) during near, mid and late centuries respectively. Season-wise projection revealed that the change in rainfall and temperature is expected to be more in winter and summer under both the RCP scenarios. The projected future climate change will have both positive and negative impacts on agriculture. The negative impacts are expected to be more pronounced during kharif in comparison to rabi.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Divisions: | Research Program : Innovation Systems for the Drylands (ISD) |
| CRP: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Climate projection, coastal districts, rainfall, temperature, trend analysis |
| Subjects: | Others > Agriculture Others > Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Others > Rainfed Agriculture |
| Depositing User: | Mr Nagaraju T |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Feb 2025 08:29 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Feb 2025 08:29 |
| URI: | http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/12957 |
| Official URL: | https://www.jstor.org/stable/27310583 |
| Projects: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Funders: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Acknowledgement: | This study was financially supported by the Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi (order no. DST/CCP/MRDP/143/2017(G)). We thank India Meteorological Department, Pune, for providing historical weather data and the Director, ICAR-National Rice Research Institute, Cuttack for support during this study. |
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