Roshni, T and Choudhary, S and Jha, M K and Ghorbani, M A and Wable, P S (2022) Management of groundwater drought risk by reliability theory and copula model in Sina basin, India. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 8. ISSN 2363-5037
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A probabilistic-based groundwater model is developed to address the spatio-temporal distribution of the severity and duration of groundwater droughts for an aquifer having high groundwater fluctuations over space and time. Many studies were performed in the past to analyse the groundwater drought using various hydrological and meteorological indices. However, the study of joint probability distribution of groundwater drought risk and return period remains as a research gap in past literatures. Hence, in the current study this gap was fulfilled by developing a DSS module that calculates Groundwater Drought Risk (GDR) and Environmental Hazard Index (EHI) based on the probability distribution method. Thereafter, the return period of drought event both in terms of severity and duration was calculated by the Copula method. The model is developed for Sina basin, which is in the state of Maharashtra (India). The groundwater levels from 133 wells distributed spatially over the basin are selected to estimate the groundwater drought status for the period 1990–2009. Standardised Water Index is used for quantifying the groundwater droughts over the basin and found a continuous decline in the groundwater level over the time. Hence, a tool has been formulated for the assessment of risk imposed by the over mining of groundwater resources in the Sina basin. The decisive tool works on the principle of reliability analysis, which accounts for the calculation of GDR and EHI for Mild, Moderate, Severe and Extreme drought bands for each well. The risk obtained is assessed for its severity and duration based on a joint probability Copula module. The results showed that mild and moderate drought conditions prevails in the entire basin for the period 1990–2009. From the data set, a 25.2% increase in groundwater resistance is observed from mild to moderate drought band and a 25% increase is observed from severe to extreme drought band in the selected time period. The GDR for severe and extreme bands is affecting localised regions with high intensity. Based on the EHI values, the Beed region in the northeastern region of the Sina basin is very vulnerable to external stresses and requires immediate attention. The return period of severity and duration of different drought events are analysed by the Copula model and the results show that majority of the drought events in the mild and moderate bands are occurring below 2 years. These results examine the present groundwater drought situation in Sina basin and by properly managing the groundwater resource, the obtained risk can be minimised and many wells can be conserved by carefully addressing its EHI. This paper identifies and highlights hotspots in various time horizons and shows that if continuous abstraction persists, it likely accelerates the groundwater in absence of proper management plans. This model analysed the present groundwater drought scenario of the Sina basin and the results will be helpful for the policymakers for preparing better management strategies for the sustainable development of groundwater.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Divisions: | Research Program : Innovation Systems for the Drylands (ISD) |
| CRP: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Groundwater, Risk, Reliability, Probability, Copula |
| Subjects: | Others > Water Resources Others > India |
| Depositing User: | Mr Nagaraju T |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Apr 2024 10:07 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Apr 2024 10:07 |
| URI: | http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/12646 |
| Official URL: | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40899-0... |
| Projects: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Funders: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Acknowledgement: | This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. However, authors are very thankful to National Institute of Technology Patna for providing the necessary resources to conduct this research. |
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