Advances in crop insect modelling methods—Towards a whole system approach

Tonnang, H E Z and Hervé, B D B and Biber-Freudenberger, L and Salifu, D and Subramanian, S and Ngowi, V B and Guimapi, R Y A and Anani, B and Kakmeni, F M M and Affognon, H D and Niassy, S and Landmann, T and Ndjomatchoua, F T and Pedro, S A and Johansson, T and Tanga, C M and Nana, P and Fiaboe, K M and Mohamed, S F and Maniania, N K and Nedorezov, L V and Ekesi, S and Borgemeister, C (2017) Advances in crop insect modelling methods—Towards a whole system approach. Ecological Modelling, 354. pp. 88-103. ISSN 0304-3800

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A wide range of insects affect crop production and cause considerable yield losses. Difficulties reside on the development and adaptation of adequate strategies to predict insect pests for their timely management to ensure enhanced agricultural production. Several conceptual modelling frameworks have been proposed, and the choice of an approach depends largely on the objective of the model and the availability of data. This paper presents a summary of decades of advances in insect population dynamics, phenology models, distribution and risk mapping. Existing challenges on the modelling of insects are listed; followed by innovations in the field. New approaches include artificial neural networks, cellular automata (CA) coupled with fuzzy logic (FL), fractal, multi-fractal, percolation, synchronization and individual/agent-based approaches. A concept for assessing climate change impacts and providing adaptation options for agricultural pest management independently of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios is suggested. A framework for estimating losses and optimizing yields within crop production system is proposed and a summary on modelling the economic impact of pests control is presented. The assessment shows that the majority of known insect modelling approaches are not holistic; they only concentrate on a single component of the system, i.e. the pest, rather than the whole crop production system. We suggest system thinking as a possible approach for linking crop, pest, and environmental conditions to provide a more comprehensive assessment of agricultural crop production.

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Research Program : West & Central Africa
CRP: CGIAR Research Program on Grain Legumes
Uncontrolled Keywords: Insect modelling approaches; Integrated pest management; Crop production; Climate change; Impact assessment; Yield losses; System thinking; Crop insect modelling methods
Subjects: Others > Crop Yield
Others > Entomology
Depositing User: Mr Ramesh K
Date Deposited: 18 Apr 2017 08:58
Last Modified: 26 Apr 2018 08:58
Official URL:
Acknowledgement: This work is part of the fellowship project (VW-89362) of HEZTfunded by the Volkswagen Foundation under the shame Fund-ing Initiative Knowledge for Tomorrow − Cooperative ResearchProjects in Sub-Saharan on Resources, their Dynamics, and Sus-tainability − Capacity Development in Comparative and IntegratedApproaches. The authors thank the Federal Ministry of Cooperationand Development (BMZ), Germany that provided the financial sup-port through Tuta IPM project, and the Ministry for Foreign Affairsof Finland that provided financial support through CHIESA (ClimateChange Impacts on Ecosystem Services and Food Security in EasternAfrica) project.
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