Simulating potential yield of rainfed soybean in northeast Nigeria

Kamara, A Y and Bebeley, J F and Aliyu, K T and Tofa, A I and Omoigui, L and Solomon, R and Akinseye, F M (2022) Simulating potential yield of rainfed soybean in northeast Nigeria. European Journal of Agronomy (TSI), 142. pp. 1-16. ISSN 1161-0301

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We used the CROPGRO-Soybean model to simulate the production potential of rainfed soybean in northeast Nigeria. Data from ten soybean experiments conducted under optimal conditions in 2016–2018 at Kano and Dambatta in the Sudan savanna (SS) agroecological zone were used to determine the cultivar coefficients and calibrate the model for the varieties TGX 1448–2E and TGX1951–3 F. The model was evaluated with data from four phosphorous response trials conducted at Zaria and Doguwa in the northern Guinea savanna (GS) of Nigeria between 2016 and 2018. Results show that the CROPGRO-Soybean model was able to accurately simulate soybean growth and grain yield with low RMSE and high d-index values. Consequently, the model was used to investigate the rainfed yield potential of the two varieties in 24 sites in northeast Nigeria under different sowing windows using 30-year (1985–2014) weather data. The result shows that soybean can be grown in northeast Nigeria, but yield performance is dependent on location, variety and sowing window. The simulated yield was higher in the SS than in the GS agro-ecozone despite the longer growing period in the later. Low yield was simulated for TGX 1448–2E for most of the sites. The yield of TGX1951–3 F was above a threshold of 1500 kg ha−1 in 5 out of 12 sites in the GS and 7 out of 12 sites in the SS, suggesting that this variety is the most suitable for cultivation in northeast Nigeria. Sowing TGX 1951–3 F can be delayed to July 16 at Gwaskara, Nasarawo Demsa and Tawa in the GS and at Briyel, Lakundum, Jara Dali, Kurbo Gayi, and Mathau in the SS with a low-risk of crop failure. The desired yield will be achieved at Chikala and Puba Vidau with a significantly low risk of crop failure for all sowing windows. The results from this study suggest that the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean model can be a valuable tool in determining the right variety and sowing window for soybean production in targeted agroecological zones in northeast Nigeria.

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Research Program : West & Central Africa
Uncontrolled Keywords: CROPGRO-Soybean model, Optimum sowing window, Soybean, Productivity, Northeast Nigeria
Subjects: Others > Nigeria
Others > Legume Crops
Others > Sub-Saharan Africa
Depositing User: Mr Nagaraju T
Date Deposited: 15 Mar 2024 04:18
Last Modified: 15 Mar 2024 04:18
Official URL:
Acknowledgement: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation funded the field studies to obtain climate and field data to calibrate and validate the CROPGRO Model in northern Nigeria through the project Putting Nitrogen Fixation into Use for Smallholder farmers in Africa with Grant no. OPP1020032OPP1020032. Soil data were collected from locations in Borno and Adamawa State and analysed with funds from USAID under the project Integrated Agriculture Activity Agreement No.72062018IO00002 No.72062018IO00002
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