eprintid: 9824
rev_number: 18
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1305
dir: disk0/00/00/98/24
datestamp: 2017-01-05 08:16:46
lastmod: 2017-01-05 10:45:17
status_changed: 2017-01-05 08:16:46
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: van Ittersum, M K
creators_name: van Bussel, L G J
creators_name: Wolf, J
creators_name: Grassini, P
creators_name: van Wart, J
creators_name: Guilpart, N
creators_name: Claessens, L
creators_name: de Groot, H
creators_name: Wiebe, K
creators_name: Mason-D’Croz, D
creators_name: Yang, H
creators_name: Boogaard, H
creators_name: van Oort, P A J
creators_name: van Loon, M P
creators_name: Saito, K
creators_name: Adimo, O
creators_name: Adjei-Nsiah, S
creators_name: Agali, A
creators_name: Bala, A
creators_name: Chikowo, R
creators_name: Kaizzi, K
creators_name: Kouressy, M
creators_name: Makoi, J H J R
creators_name: Ouattara, K
creators_name: Tesfaye, K
creators_name: Cassman, K G
icrisatcreators_name: Claessens, L
affiliation: Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University (Wageningen)
affiliation: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska (Lincoln)
affiliation: ICRISAT (Nairobi)
affiliation: Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research (Wageningen)
affiliation: Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington)
affiliation: Africa Rice Center, Sustainable Productivity Enhancement Program (Cotonou)
affiliation: Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University (Wageningen)
affiliation: Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (Nairobi)
affiliation: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (Tamale)
affiliation: AGRHYMET Regional Centre (Niamey)
affiliation: Department of Soil Science, Federal University of Technology Minna (Gidan-Kwano)
affiliation: Crop Science Department, University of Zimbabwe (Harare)
affiliation: National Agricultural Research Laboratories (Kampala)
affiliation: Institut d'Economie Rurale (Bamako)
affiliation: National Irrigation Commission, Ministry of Water and Irrigation (Dar es Salaam)
affiliation: Institut de l'Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles (Ouagadougou)
affiliation: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (Addis Ababa)
country: Netherlands
country: USA
country: Kenya
country: Benin
country: Ghana
country: Niger
country: Nigeria
country: Zimbabwe
country: Uganda
country: Mali
country: Tanzania
country: Burkina Faso
country: Ethiopia
title: Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
ispublished: pub
subjects: F12
subjects: s26
subjects: s28
subjects: s4004
divisions: CRPS5
crps: crp1.11
full_text_status: public
keywords: Yield gaps, Food self-sufficiency, Food security, Food availability, Cereals, Cereal demand, sub Saharan Africa
note: We thank J. Chamberlin for providing potentially
available cropland areas and K. E. Giller for comments on an earlier version
of the manuscript. This research was performed in the context of the GYGA
project (www.yieldgap.org) supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation,
the Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute at the University of
Nebraska-Lincoln, and Wageningen University & Research (The Netherlands).
Research conducted with the International Food Policy Research Institute’s
(IFPRI) IMPACT model was supported by the CGIAR Research
Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) and the Bill & Melinda
Gates Foundation. We also acknowledge the CGIAR Research Program on
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS).
abstract: Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.
date: 2016
date_type: published
publication: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
volume: 113
number: 52
publisher: National Academy of Sciences
pagerange: 14964-14969
id_number: 10.1073/pnas.1610359113
refereed: TRUE
issn: 0027-8424
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610359113
related_url_url: https://scholar.google.co.in/scholar?as_q=Can+sub-Saharan+Africa+feed+itself%3F&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_occt=title&as_sauthors=&as_publication=&as_ylo=&as_yhi=&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5
related_url_type: pub
projects: GYGA project
citation:   van Ittersum, M K and van Bussel, L G J and Wolf, J and Grassini, P and van Wart, J and Guilpart, N and Claessens, L and de Groot, H and Wiebe, K and Mason-D’Croz, D and Yang, H and Boogaard, H and van Oort, P A J and van Loon, M P and Saito, K and Adimo, O and Adjei-Nsiah, S and Agali, A and Bala, A and Chikowo, R and Kaizzi, K and Kouressy, M and Makoi, J H J R and Ouattara, K and Tesfaye, K and Cassman, K G  (2016) Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113 (52).  pp. 14964-14969.  ISSN 0027-8424     
document_url: http://oar.icrisat.org/9824/1/PNAS-2016-van%20Ittersum-14964-9.pdf