"9824","18","archive","1305",,,"disk0/00/00/98/24","2017-01-05 08:16:46","2017-01-05 10:45:17","2017-01-05 08:16:46","article",,,"show",,,,"","","","","","","","","","",,,,"van Ittersum","M K","","","","","","","Claessens","L","","","","",,,,,"","",,,,,"","","Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University (Wageningen)","Netherlands","Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?","pub","F12","CRPS5","crp1.11","public",,,"Yield gaps, Food self-sufficiency, Food security, Food availability, Cereals, Cereal demand, sub Saharan Africa",,"We thank J. Chamberlin for providing potentially
available cropland areas and K. E. Giller for comments on an earlier version
of the manuscript. This research was performed in the context of the GYGA
project (www.yieldgap.org) supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation,
the Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute at the University of
Nebraska-Lincoln, and Wageningen University & Research (The Netherlands).
Research conducted with the International Food Policy Research Institute’s
(IFPRI) IMPACT model was supported by the CGIAR Research
Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) and the Bill & Melinda
Gates Foundation. We also acknowledge the CGIAR Research Program on
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS).","Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.","2016","published",,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","113","52","National Academy of Sciences",,"14964-14969",,,,,,"10.1073/pnas.1610359113",,,,,"TRUE",,"0027-8424",,,,,,"","http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610359113","https://scholar.google.co.in/scholar?as_q=Can+sub-Saharan+Africa+feed+itself%3F&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_occt=title&as_sauthors=&as_publication=&as_ylo=&as_yhi=&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5","pub",,"","GYGA project",,,,,,"",,,,,,,"",,,,,"",,,,,"","",,,,,"","",,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"van Bussel","L G J","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska (Lincoln)","USA",,,"s26",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Wolf","J","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"ICRISAT (Nairobi)","Kenya",,,"s28",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Grassini","P","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research (Wageningen)","Benin",,,"s4004",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"van Wart","J","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington)","Ghana",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Guilpart","N","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Africa Rice Center, Sustainable Productivity Enhancement Program (Cotonou)","Niger",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Claessens","L","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University (Wageningen)","Nigeria",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"de Groot","H","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (Nairobi)","Zimbabwe",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Wiebe","K","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (Tamale)","Uganda",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Mason-D’Croz","D","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"AGRHYMET Regional Centre (Niamey)","Mali",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Yang","H","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Department of Soil Science, Federal University of Technology Minna (Gidan-Kwano)","Tanzania",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Boogaard","H","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Crop Science Department, University of Zimbabwe (Harare)","Burkina Faso",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"van Oort","P A J","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"National Agricultural Research Laboratories (Kampala)","Ethiopia",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"van Loon","M P","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Institut d'Economie Rurale (Bamako)",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Saito","K","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"National Irrigation Commission, Ministry of Water and Irrigation (Dar es Salaam)",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Adimo","O","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Institut de l'Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles (Ouagadougou)",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Adjei-Nsiah","S","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (Addis Ababa)",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Agali","A","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Bala","A","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Chikowo","R","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Kaizzi","K","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Kouressy","M","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Makoi","J H J R","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Ouattara","K","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Tesfaye","K","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"9824",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Cassman","K G","","",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,