eprintid: 9715
rev_number: 12
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1305
dir: disk0/00/00/97/15
datestamp: 2016-10-04 04:58:27
lastmod: 2016-12-21 05:49:37
status_changed: 2016-10-04 04:58:27
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Islam, S
creators_name: Cenacchi, N
creators_name: Sulser, T B
creators_name: Gbegbelegbe, S
creators_name: Hareau, G
creators_name: Kleinwechter, U
creators_name: Mason-D'Croz, D
creators_name: Nedumaran, S
creators_name: Robertson, R
creators_name: Robinson, S
creators_name: Wiebe, K
icrisatcreators_name: Nedumaran, S
affiliation: International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington DC)
affiliation: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (Ibadan)
affiliation: International Potato Center (Lima)
affiliation: ICRISAT (Patancheru)
country: USA
country: Nigeria
country: Peru
country: India
title: Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security
ispublished: pub
subjects: s2.8
subjects: s26
divisions: D6
crps: crp1.11
crps: crp1.14
full_text_status: public
keywords: Structural approach; Agricultural productivity; Yields; Climate change; Adaptation; Global food security; Crop technologies
note: This work was done as part of the Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Program, with funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) (Program Participant Agreement no. CRP-137-11), and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant no. is OPP1009468). Comments from two anonymous reviewers on an earlier draft are gratefully acknowledged.
abstract: Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic trends, thus providing a more accurate picture of how agriculture and the food system may be affected in the coming decades. We review and analyze the literature on this structural approach and present a case study that follows this methodology, explicitly modeling drought and heat tolerant crop varieties. We show that yield gains from adoption of these varieties differ by technology and region, but are generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) adverse effects of climate change. However, yield increases over the projection period are dominated by the effects of growth in population, income, and general productivity, highlighting the importance of joint assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses.
date: 2016-09
date_type: published
publication: Global Food Security
volume: 10
number: -
publisher: Elsevier B.V.
pagerange: 63-70
id_number: 10.1016/j.gfs.2016.08.003
refereed: TRUE
issn: 22119124
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2016.08.003
related_url_url: https://scholar.google.co.in/scholar?q=Structuralapproachestomodelingtheimpactofclimatechangeand+adaptationtechnologiesoncropyieldsandfoodsecurity&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5
related_url_type: pub
funders: CGIAR Research Program on PIM, CGIAR Research Program on CCAFS and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
citation:   Islam, S and Cenacchi, N and Sulser, T B and Gbegbelegbe, S and Hareau, G and Kleinwechter, U and Mason-D'Croz, D and Nedumaran, S and Robertson, R and Robinson, S and Wiebe, K  (2016) Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security.  Global Food Security, 10 (-).  pp. 63-70.  ISSN 22119124     
document_url: http://oar.icrisat.org/9715/1/1-s2.0-S2211912416300670-main.pdf