eprintid: 5368
rev_number: 14
eprint_status: archive
userid: 30
dir: disk0/00/00/53/68
datestamp: 2012-01-24 11:04:27
lastmod: 2012-01-24 11:30:30
status_changed: 2012-01-24 11:04:27
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
contact_email: Library-ICRISAT@cgiar.org
creators_name: Garrett, K A
creators_name: et al, .
icrisatcreators_name: Pande, S
affiliation: Kansas State University(Manhattan)
affiliation: CIP(Lima)
affiliation: IRRI(Manila)
affiliation: University of Missouri(Columbia)
affiliation: University of Florida(Gainesville)
affiliation: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences(Uppsala)
affiliation: CIMMYT(Mexico)
affiliation: ICRISAT(Patancheru)
country: USA
country: Peru
country: Philippines
country: Colombia
country: Sweden
country: India
title: Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease
ispublished: pub
subjects: s2.7
subjects: s2.8
full_text_status: restricted
keywords: cereal head blight;disease risk;ecosystem services;fusarium graminearum;potato late blight;phytophthora infestans
note: We appreciate the opportunity to contribute to this special
edition of Plant Pathology and the helpful comments
of the reviewers. We also appreciate support by US NSF
Grants DEB-0130692 and DEB-0516046, by NSF Grant
EF-0525712 as part of the joint NSF-NIH Ecology of
Infectious Disease program, by USDA Grants 2010-
34103-20964 and 5430-21000-005-245, by the USAID
for the SANREM CRSP under award no. EPP-A-00-04-
00013-00 to the OIRED at Virginia Tech, and by The
Ceres Trust, SIDA, and the Kansas Agricultural Experiment
Station (contribution no. 11-060-J).
abstract: The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services are complex in the sense that effective prediction requires consideration of a wide range of factors. Useful analysis of climate-change impacts on crops and native plant systems will often require consideration of the wide array of other biota that interact with plants, including plant diseases, animal herbivores, and weeds. We present a framework for analysis of complexity in climate-change effects mediated by plant disease. This framework can support evaluation of the level of model complexity likely to be required for analysing climate-change impacts mediated by disease. Our analysis incorporates consideration of the following set of questions for a particular host, pathogen, host–pathogen combination, or geographic region. 1. Are multiple biological interactions important? 2. Are there environmental thresholds for population responses? 3. Are there indirect effects of global change factors on disease development? 4. Are spatial components of epidemic processes affected by climate? 5. Are there feedback loops for management? 6. Are networks for intervention technologies slower than epidemic networks? 7. Are there effects of plant disease on multiple ecosystem services? 8. Are there feedback loops from plant disease to climate change? Evaluation of these questions will help in gauging system complexity, as illustrated for fusarium head blight and potato late blight. In practice, it may be necessary to expand models to include more components, identify those components that are the most important, and synthesize such models to include the optimal level of complexity for planning and research prioritization
date: 2011
date_type: published
publication: Plant Pathology
volume: 60
number: 1
publisher: Blackwell Publishing
pagerange: 15-30
refereed: TRUE
issn: 1365-3059
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02409.x
related_url_url: http://scholar.google.co.in/scholar?hl=en&q=allintitle%3A+%22Complexity+in+climate-change+impacts%3A+an+analytical+framework+for+effects+mediated+by+plant+disease%22&btnG=Search&as_sdt=0%2C5&as_ylo=&as_vis=0
related_url_type: author
funders: National Science Foundation (NSF), USA
funders: United States Agency for International Development
projects: Ecology of Infectious Disease program
citation:   Garrett, K A and et al, .  (2011) Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease.  Plant Pathology, 60 (1).  pp. 15-30.  ISSN 1365-3059     
document_url: http://oar.icrisat.org/5368/1/PlantPatholgy_60_15-30_2011.pdf