eprintid: 11565
rev_number: 21
eprint_status: archive
userid: 3170
dir: disk0/00/01/15/65
datestamp: 2020-08-23 14:51:09
lastmod: 2021-03-15 09:00:03
status_changed: 2020-08-23 14:51:09
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Falconnier, G N
creators_name: Corbeels, M
creators_name: Boote, K J
creators_name: Affholder, F
creators_name: Adam, M
creators_name: MacCarthy, D S
creators_name: Ruane, A C
creators_name: Nendel, C
creators_name: Whitbread, A M
creators_name: Justes, E
creators_name: Ahuja, L R
creators_name: Akinseye, F M
creators_name: Alou, I N
creators_name: Amouzou, K A
creators_name: Anapalli, S S
creators_name: Baron, C
creators_name: Basso, B
creators_name: Baudron, F
creators_name: Bertuzzi, P
creators_name: Challinor, A J
creators_name: Chen, Y
creators_name: Deryng, D
creators_name: Elsayed, M L
creators_name: Faye, B
creators_name: Gaiser, T
creators_name: Galdos, M
creators_name: Gayler, S
creators_name: Gerardeaux, E
creators_name: Giner, M
creators_name: Grant, B
creators_name: Hoogenboom, G
creators_name: Ibrahim, E S
creators_name: Kamali, B
creators_name: Kersebaum, K C
creators_name: Kim, S H
creators_name: van der Laan, M
creators_name: Leroux, L
creators_name: Lizaso, J I
creators_name: Maestrini, B
creators_name: Meier, E A
creators_name: Mequanint, F
creators_name: Ndoli, A
creators_name: Porter, C H
creators_name: Priesack, E
creators_name: Ripoche, D
creators_name: Sida, T
creators_name: Singh, U
creators_name: Smith, W
creators_name: Srivastava, A
creators_name: Sinha, S
creators_name: Tao, F
creators_name: Thorburn, P J
creators_name: Timlin, D
creators_name: Traore, B
creators_name: Twine, T
creators_name: Webber, H
icrisatcreators_name: Whitbread, A M
icrisatcreators_name: Akinseye, F M
affiliation: AIDA, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
affiliation: CIMMYT, Nairobi, Kenya
affiliation: University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
affiliation: CIRAD, UMR AGAP, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
affiliation: AGAP, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
affiliation: Soil and Irrigation Research Centre, School of Agriculture, College of Basic and Applied Science, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
affiliation: Climate Impacts Group, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
affiliation: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
affiliation: ICRISAT (Dar es Salaam)
affiliation: PERSYST, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
affiliation: USDA-ARS, Fort Collins, CO, USA
affiliation: ICRISAT (Kano)
affiliation: Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
affiliation: West Africa Program, African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI), Yamoussoukro, Cote d'Ivoire
affiliation: Sustainable Water Management Research Unit, USDA-ARS, Stoneville, MS, USA
affiliation: CIRAD, UMR TETIS, Montpellier, France
affiliation: TETIS, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, IRSTEA, Montpellier, France
affiliation: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
affiliation: CIMMYT, Harare, Zimbabwe
affiliation: INRA, Agroclim, France
affiliation: Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
affiliation: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
affiliation: College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
affiliation: Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
affiliation: NewClimate Institute, Berlin, Germany
affiliation: MALR-ARC, Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Giza, Egypt
affiliation: Crop Science Group, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
affiliation: Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
affiliation: Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
affiliation: School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
affiliation: CIRAD, UPR AIDA, Dakar, Senegal
affiliation: CEIGRAM-Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ETSIAAB, Madrid, Spain
affiliation: CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Queensland Bioscience Precinct, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
affiliation: Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Center Munich, Neuherberg, Germany
affiliation: CIMMYT, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
affiliation: International Center for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development, Muscle Shoals, AL, USA
affiliation: Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
affiliation: Crop Systems and Global Change Research Unit, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD, USA
affiliation: IER, Bamako, Mali
affiliation: Department of Soil, Water, and Climate, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA
country: France
country: Kenya
country: USA
country: Burkina Faso
country: Ghana
country: Germany
country: Tanzania
country: Nigeria
country: South Africa
country: Cote d'Ivoire
country: Zimbabwe
country: UK
country: China
country: Egypt
country: Canada
country: Senegal
country: Spain
country: Australia
country: Ethiopia
country: Finland
country: Mali
title: Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa
ispublished: pub
subjects: CPM
subjects: SM1
subjects: s2.6
subjects: s2.8
divisions: CRPS4
divisions: CRPS1
crps: crp1.11
crps: CG1
full_text_status: restricted
keywords: Crop simulation model, Ensemble modelling, Model intercomparison, Smallholder farming systems, Uncertainty
note: We are grateful to the members of the AgMIP leadership team for
their support and to Senthold Asseng and Pierre Martre for sharing
their insights in the AgMIP Wheat Team. The lead author also thanks Sonali McDermid for her help in extracting AgMERRA data.
abstract: Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with
limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production
constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change
on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy
and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated
the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for
different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including
cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and
hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were
calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest
index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to
assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change
factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced
measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square
error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%).
Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen
fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall.
Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric
[CO2]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was
more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model
intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays
a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate
change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust
adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient
management.
date: 2020-06
date_type: published
publication: Global Change Biology (TSI)
publisher: Wiley
pagerange: 1-23
id_number: doi:10.1111/gcb.15261
refereed: TRUE
issn: 1354-1013
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15261
related_url_url: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=10.1111%2Fgcb.15261&btnG=
related_url_type: pub
citation:   Falconnier, G N and Corbeels, M and Boote, K J and Affholder, F and Adam, M and MacCarthy, D S and Ruane, A C and Nendel, C and Whitbread, A M and Justes, E and Ahuja, L R and Akinseye, F M and Alou, I N and Amouzou, K A and Anapalli, S S and Baron, C and Basso, B and Baudron, F and Bertuzzi, P and Challinor, A J and Chen, Y and Deryng, D and Elsayed, M L and Faye, B and Gaiser, T and Galdos, M and Gayler, S and Gerardeaux, E and Giner, M and Grant, B and Hoogenboom, G and Ibrahim, E S and Kamali, B and Kersebaum, K C and Kim, S H and van der Laan, M and Leroux, L and Lizaso, J I and Maestrini, B and Meier, E A and Mequanint, F and Ndoli, A and Porter, C H and Priesack, E and Ripoche, D and Sida, T and Singh, U and Smith, W and Srivastava, A and Sinha, S and Tao, F and Thorburn, P J and Timlin, D and Traore, B and Twine, T and Webber, H  (2020) Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa.  Global Change Biology (TSI).  pp. 1-23.  ISSN 1354-1013     
document_url: http://oar.icrisat.org/11565/1/Falconnier_et_al_2020_GCB.PDF