TY  - JOUR
AV  - restricted
A1  - Panwar, S
A1  - Singh, K N
A1  - Kumar, A
A1  - Paul, R K
A1  - Sarkar, S K
A1  - Gurung, B
A1  - Rathore, A
TI  - Performance evaluation of yield crop forecasting models using weather index regression analysis
UR  - http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/index.php/IJAgS/article/view/67673
JF  - Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences
SN  - 0019-5022
PB  - ICAR
N2  - A crop forecast is a statement of the most likely magnitude of yield or production of a crop. It is made on the basis of known facts on a given date and it assumes that the weather conditions and damages during the remainder of the growing season will be about the same as the average of previous year. The present paper deals with use of non-linear regression analysis for developing wheat yield forecast model for Allahabad district (India). A novel statistical approach attempted in this study to use nonlinear models with different weather variables and their indices and compare them to identify a suitable forecasting model. Time series yield data of 40 years (1970-2010) and weather data for the year 1970-71 to 2009-10 have been utilized. The models have been used to forecast yield in the subsequent three years 2008-09 to 2009-10 (which were not included in model development). The approach provided reliable yield forecast about two months before harvest.
KW  - Forecasting
KW  -  Nonlinear regression model
KW  -  Weather indices approach
KW  -  Weather variables
KW  -  Crop forecast
KW  -  Crops yield forecast models
KW  -  Forecasting yield
KW  -  Wheat crop
KW  -  Non-linear regression technique
Y1  - 2017/02//
SP  - 270
ID  - icrisat10136
EP  - 272
VL  - 87
IS  - 2
ER  -