eprintid: 10089
rev_number: 12
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1305
dir: disk0/00/01/00/89
datestamp: 2017-07-11 09:09:30
lastmod: 2018-03-06 07:14:02
status_changed: 2017-07-11 09:09:30
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Tobias, O R
creators_name: Gachene, C K K
creators_name: Claessens, L
icrisatcreators_name: Claessens, L
affiliation: Department of Land Resource Management and Agricultural Technology, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Sciences, University of Nairobi (Kangemi)
affiliation: ICRISAT (Nairobi)
country: Kenya
title: Adapting Nyando smallholder farming systems to climate change and variability through modeling
ispublished: pub
subjects: GL1
subjects: SM1
subjects: f1
subjects: s2.8
divisions: CRPS5
crps: crp1.11
full_text_status: public
keywords: Climate change, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), global coupled
models, maize yield
abstract: This study was done in Nyando, Kenya to model maize production under different climate scenarios
and project the yields up to 2030 and 2050 using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer
(DSSAT) under rain fed conditions. Three maize varieties were used; Katumani Comp B as early
maturing variety, Hybrid 511 as a medium maturing variety and Hybrid 614 as a late maturing variety.
Global coupled model Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 (HadGEM2-ES) under
representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 was used to downscale Nyando’s climate data
for the years 2030 and 2050. Past climate data for 53 years and current data was obtained from Kisumu
Meteorological station while crop growth and farm management data was obtained from 70 farmers in
Nyando. Results showed a decrease in yields across the years from 2015, 2030 and 2050 under both
RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Average simulated yields for 2015 were 2519 kg ha-1 while projected yields under RCP
4.5 were 2212 and 2081 kg ha-1 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Average yield projections under RCP 8.5
were 2184 and 1806 kg ha-1 for the years 2030 and 2050 consecutively. The study found out that
temperatures will increase and rainfall duration will reduce. In addition, Katumani Comp B maize variety
was not very much affected by these changes in temperatures and rainfall compared to H511 and H614.
date: 2017
date_type: published
publication: African Journal of Agricultural Research
volume: 12
number: 26
publisher: Academic Journals
pagerange: 2178-2187
id_number: 10.5897/AJAR2017.12421
refereed: TRUE
issn: 1991-637X
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.5897/AJAR2017.12421
related_url_url: https://scholar.google.co.in/scholar?q=Adapting+Nyando+smallholder+farming+systems+to+climate+change+and+variability+through+modeling&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5
related_url_type: pub
citation:   Tobias, O R and Gachene, C K K and Claessens, L  (2017) Adapting Nyando smallholder farming systems to climate change and variability through modeling.  African Journal of Agricultural Research, 12 (26).  pp. 2178-2187.  ISSN 1991-637X     
document_url: http://oar.icrisat.org/10089/1/4D7E0A964989.pdf