Production performance of maize in India : Approaching an inflection point

Kumar, R and Srinivas, K and Boiroju, N K and Gedam, P C (2014) Production performance of maize in India : Approaching an inflection point. International Journal of Agricultural and Statistical Sciences, 10 (1). pp. 241-248. ISSN 0973-1903

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Abstract

Maize is the third most important crop after rice and wheat in India in terms of its area coverage and contribution to total food grains production. It is grown in almost all agro-ecological regions, contributing about 22 million tonnes of grain production from about 9 million hectares of land. The production pattern as well as its consumption pattern has dramatically changed in India in the recent past. However, the average crop yield of 2.5 t/ha is still very low as compared to the other Asian countries like Bangladesh (6.8 t/ha), China (5.7 t/ha), Indonesia (4.6 t/ha) and Pakistan (3.8 t/ha) in 2012 (FAOSTAT). This paper has examined the growth and instability in maize production in the major districts of major maize growing States in the country. An attempt has also been made to forecast its production in near and mid-term under different scenarios. The results showed that more than 60 per cent of maize area is observed to be having maize yield less than 2 t/ha. At the same time, huge variability in maize yield between and within the maize growing States was also found. However, the maize yield is estimated to increase little more than 3 t/ha by the year 2020, if the current policy and macro-economic environment continues. It is also expected that the demand for maize in domestic as well as in international market will grow faster than the production growth, creating very good potential for Indian maize in the near future. Therefore, to meet the future growing demand of maize in domestic as well as international market, it is desired to have different growth pathway than the existing trend. To realize that kind of inflection point, India has to gear up its logistics and supply chain to handle the near-double size of the maize output in coming years.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions:	RP-Market Institutions and Policies
CRP:	CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Maize; Forecasting; Growth; Instability; Box-Jenkins methodology; Artificial Neural Networks
Subjects:	Others > Maize
Depositing User:	Mr Ramesh K
Date Deposited:	10 Jun 2015 04:59
Last Modified:	10 Jun 2015 06:21
URI:	http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/8771
Official URL:
Projects:	UNSPECIFIED
Funders:	UNSPECIFIED
Acknowledgement:	The paper is based on the findings of ongoing research project on “Assessment of the maize situation, outlook and investment opportunities in Asia” funded by CIMMYT, Mexico. NAARM, Hyderabad is the lead centre of the project and other country partners include from Bangladesh, China, Indonesia and Pakistan. Therefore, the research team duly acknowledge the financial support provided by CIMMYT, Mexico under MAIZE-CRP.
Links:	Google Scholar

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