Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivars under Future Climates: Integrated Modeling approach

Nedumaran, S and Bantilan, M C S and Abinaya, P and Mason-D’Croz, D and Ashok Kumar, A (2013) Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivars under Future Climates: Integrated Modeling approach. In: Vulnerability of Agriculture, Water and Fisheries to Climate Change: Toward Sustainable Adaptation Strategies. Springer, pp. 1-22.

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Abstract

An integrated modeling framework – IMPACT – which integrates partial equilibrium economic model, hydrology model, crop simulation model and climate model was used to examine the ex-ante economic impact of developing and disseminating a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar in target countries of Africa and Asia. The impact of drought tolerant sorghum technology on production, consumption, trade flow and prices of sorghum in target and non-target countries were analyzed. And also we estimated the returns to research investment for developing the promising new drought tolerant cultivars and dissemination in the target countries. The analysis indicates that development and release of drought tolerant sorghum in the target countries of Asia and Africa would provide a net economic benefit of about 1476.8 million US$ for the entire world under no climate change condition. Under climate change scenarios the net benefits derived from adoption of new drought tolerant sorghum cultivar is higher than the no climate change condition. This is due to higher production realized by sorghum under climate change scenarios. The results imply that substantial economic benefits can be achieved from the development of a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar. And also this technology will perform better than the existing cultivars in future climate change condition.

Item Type: Book Section
Divisions: RP-Dryland Cereals
RP-Market Institutions and Policies
CRP: CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Cereals
Uncontrolled Keywords: Drought Tolerant, Sorghum Cultivars, Climate change, Integrated Modeling approach
Subjects: Mandate crops > Sorghum
Depositing User: Mr Sanat Kumar Behera
Date Deposited: 21 Jan 2014 10:39
Last Modified: 19 Oct 2016 08:07
URI: http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/7347
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