Joseph, J E and Rao, K P C and Swai, E and Whitbread, A M and Rötter, R P (2025) How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania. Climate Risk Management, 47. pp. 1-19. ISSN 2212-0963
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Abstract
Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Divisions: | Global Research Program - Enabling Systems Transformation |
| CRP: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Climate risk management, Growing period, Onset dates, Seasonal climate forecasts, Sea surface temperature |
| Subjects: | Others > Climate Risk |
| Depositing User: | Mr Nagaraju T |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Mar 2025 05:22 |
| Last Modified: | 06 Mar 2025 05:22 |
| URI: | http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/12997 |
| Official URL: | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/... |
| Projects: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Funders: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Acknowledgement: | This research was funded by the Academy for International Agricultural Research (ACINAR), commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), and implemented by ATSAF e.V. on behalf of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. We also gratefully acknowledge the support of the Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS) division in the Department of Crop Sciences at the University of Göttingen, Germany. Additionally, we extend our appreciation to the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) for funding the contributions of Jacob Emanuel Joseph and Anthony M. Whitbread to this study. |
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