An assessment of future climatic and anthropogenic impacts on the hydrological system of a semi-arid catchment

Nune, R and Western, A W and George, B A and Gummadi, S and Pasupuleti, S and Ragab, R and Dixit, S (2024) An assessment of future climatic and anthropogenic impacts on the hydrological system of a semi-arid catchment. Irrigation and Drainage. pp. 1-27. ISSN 1531-0353

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Abstract

Climate and catchment characteristics, particularly land and water use and management, may vary according to the population growth rate, future food habits and water demands. Three climate simulations corresponding to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B) were downscaled using the ‘Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies’ (PRECIS) for the period 1961–2098, and bias correction was performed using the quantile mapping (QM) method. A semi-distributed integrated model (Modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) was used to predict the impacts of dynamic changes in catchment characteristics in the Himayat Sagar (HS) catchment and the effects of future climate change on future streamflow and groundwater storage. Simulations predicted that if this trend continues in the future, future climate and anthropogenic changes will lead to a more than 50% reduction in streamflow and a 50% increase in actual evaporation in the HS catchment. This would reduce groundwater storage to a depth of 15 m compared to current conditions, and by the end of the century, there would be no contribution from the base flow to the streamflow. Overall, unless current policies are modified to stabilize land and water management practices, anthropogenic changes will have greater importance than climate change.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions:	Global Research Program - Resilient Farm and Food Systems
CRP:	UNSPECIFIED
Uncontrolled Keywords:	anthropogenic changes, climate change, groundwater extraction, irrigation expansion, streamflow changes and groundwater exploitation
Subjects:	Others > Irrigation Others > Climate Change Others > Water Resources
Depositing User:	Mr Nagaraju T
Date Deposited:	18 Sep 2024 05:12
Last Modified:	18 Sep 2024 05:12
URI:	http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/12818
Official URL:	https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/i...
Projects:	UNSPECIFIED
Funders:	UNSPECIFIED
Acknowledgement:	We wish to thank Dr Murray Peal, University of Melbourne, for his kind support during bias correction of the climate data. We also thank Dr Suhas P. Wani for his valuable suggestions during the development of the model scenarios. Thanks are due to all the Indian government departments mentioned in this paper for providing valuable data. The International Water Management Institute (IWMI), ICRISAT and Hyderabad provided office space during fieldwork in India. This research was funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) through a John Allwright Fellowship Award to the first author. The Robert Bage Memorial Scholarship from the University of Melbourne funded the first author to conduct fieldwork. Open access publishing facilitated by The University of Melbourne, as part of the Wiley - The University of Melbourne agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.
Links:	Google Scholar

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