Temporal Changes in Minimum and Maximum Temperatures at Selected Locations of Southern Africa

Mupangwa, W and Chipindu, L and Ncube, B and Mkuhlani, S and Nhantumbo, N and Masvaya, E and Ngwira, A and Moeletsi, M and Nyagumbo, I and Liben, F (2023) Temporal Changes in Minimum and Maximum Temperatures at Selected Locations of Southern Africa. Climate, 11. pp. 1-23. ISSN 2225-1154

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Abstract

Agriculture is threatened by ever increasing temperatures and this trend is predicted to continue for the near and distant future. The negative impact of rising temperatures on agri-food systems is also compounded by the erratic and highly variable rainfall in most parts of southern Africa. Minimum and maximum temperatures’ variability and trend analysis were undertaken using daily time series data derived from 23 meteorological stations spread across Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The modified Mann–Kendall and Theil–Sen slope models were used to assess temperature trends and their magnitudes. Temperature varied with location and minimum temperature was more variable than maximum temperature. Semi-arid regions had higher variation in minimum temperature compared to humid and coastal environments. The results showed an upward trend in minimum (0.01–0.83 °C over a 33–38 year period) and maximum (0.01–0.09 °C over a 38–57 year period) temperatures at 9 and15 locations, respectively. A downward trend in minimum temperature (0.03–0.20 °C over 38–41 years) occurred in South Africa at two locations and Dedza (Malawi), while a non-significant decline in maximum temperature (0.01 °C over 54 years) occurred at one location in coastal dry sub-humid Mozambique. The results confirm the increase in temperature over 33–79 years, and highlight the importance of including temperature when designing climate change adaption and mitigation strategies in southern Africa and similar environments.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions:	Research Program : West & Central Africa
CRP:	UNSPECIFIED
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change, globalwarming, heat stress, smallholder agriculture, temperature variability
Subjects:	Others > Smallholder Agriculture Others > Climate Change
Depositing User:	Mr Nagaraju T
Date Deposited:	05 Jan 2024 09:43
Last Modified:	05 Jan 2024 09:44
URI:	http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/12343
Official URL:	https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/4/84
Projects:	UNSPECIFIED
Funders:	Bill & Melinda Gates foundation
Acknowledgement:	The authors acknowledge the contribution of meteorological stations from Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe for generating temperature data that was used for this study.
Links:	Google Scholar

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