Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

Kadiyala, M D M and Nedumaran, S and Padmanabhan, J and Gumma, M K and Gummadi, S and Srigiri, S R and Robertson, R and Whitbread, A M (2021) Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India. Science of The Total Environment (TSI), 776. pp. 1-11. ISSN 0048-9697

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Abstract

Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semiarid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in−2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate

Item Type:	Article
Divisions:	Research Program : Innovation Systems for the Drylands (ISD)
CRP:	CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) CGIAR Research Program on Grain Legumes and Dryland Cereals (GLDC)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Groundnut, DSSAT, Climate change, Adaptation, Spatial modeling
Subjects:	Others > Climate Adaptation Others > GIS Techniques/Remote Sensing Mandate crops > Groundnut Others > Climate Change
Depositing User:	Mr Arun S
Date Deposited:	04 Mar 2021 03:02
Last Modified:	04 Mar 2021 03:02
URI:	http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/11723
Official URL:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145996
Projects:	Global Futures project
Funders:	Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Acknowledgement:	This work was undertaken as part of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets led by IFPRI and Grain Legumes and Dryland Cereals (GLDC) led by International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). Funding support for this study was from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), and Global Futures project funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1009468). The co-authors, Anthony Whitbread and SridharGummadi acknowledge salary support fromthe CGIAR Research Programs on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) carried out with support from the CGIAR Trust Fund https://www. cgiar.org/funders/ and the USDA-DFID grant #59-3625-1-745 to support The AgriculturalModel Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of these organizations.
Links:	Google Scholar

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