Impacts of rainfall and temperature on photoperiod insensitive sorghum cultivar : model evaluation and sensitivity analysis

Akinseye, F M and Folorunsho, A H and Ajeigbe, A H and Agele, S O (2019) Impacts of rainfall and temperature on photoperiod insensitive sorghum cultivar : model evaluation and sensitivity analysis. Journal of Agrometeorology (TSI), 21 (3). pp. 262-269. ISSN 0972-1665

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Abstract

A combination of local-scale climate and crop simulation model were used to investigate the impacts of change in temperature and rainfall on photoperiod insensitive sorghum in the Sudanian zone of Mali. In this study, the response of temperature and rainfall to yield patterns of photoperiod insensitive sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was evaluated. Following model calibration of the cultivar at varying sowing dates over two growing seasons (2013 and 2014), a long-term simulation was run using historical weather data (1981-2010) to determine the impacts of temperature and rainfall on grain yield, total biomass and water use efficiency at varying nitrogen fertilizer applications. The results showed that model performance was excellent with the lowest mean bias error (MBE) of -2.2 days for flowering and 1.4 days for physiological maturity. Total biomass and grain yield were satisfactorily reproduced, indicating fairly low RMSE values of 21.3% for total biomass and very low RMSE of 11.2 % for grain yield of the observed mean. Simulations at varying Nfertilizer application rate with increased temperature of 2 °C, 4 °C and 6 °C and decreased rainfall by 25 and 50 % (W-25% and W-50%) posed a highly significant risk to low yield compared to increase in rainfall. However, the magnitude of temperature changes showed a decline in grain yield by 10%, while a decrease in rainfall by W-25% and W-50% resulted in yield decline between 5% and 37%, respectively. Thus, climate-smart site-specific utilization of the photoperiod insensitive sorghum cultivar suggests more resilient and productive farming systems for sorghum in semi-arid regions of Mali.

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Research Program : West & Central Africa
CRP: CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Cereals
Uncontrolled Keywords: Crop simulation model, photoperiod insensitive, sorghum, rainfall, temperature
Subjects: Others > Climate Risk
Others > Crop Modelling
Others > Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)
Others > Cereals
Others > Crop Physiology
Others > Crop Yield
Mandate crops > Sorghum
Others > Drylands Agriculture
Others > Fertilizer Applications
Others > Climate Change
Others > Mali
Depositing User: Mr Arun S
Date Deposited: 09 Oct 2019 06:18
Last Modified: 09 Oct 2019 06:18
URI: http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/11321
Official URL: http://agrimetassociation.org/Images/Paper/21/55/1...
Projects: UNSPECIFIED
Funders: UNSPECIFIED
Acknowledgement: The authors would like to thank the International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Nigeria for providing institutional support for the study. The experiment was conducted under the former CG research Program-West and Central Africa for Dryland Cereal.
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