Palazzo, A and Vervoort, J M and Mason-D’Croz, D and Rutting, L and Havlík, P and Islam, S and Bayala, J and Valin, H and Kadi Kadi, H A and Thornton, P and Zougmore, R B (2017) Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context. Global Environmental Change, 45. pp. 227-242. ISSN 09593780
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Abstract
The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region’s imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Divisions: | Research Program : West & Central Africa |
| CRP: | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Shared socioeconomic pathways, West Africa, Food and climate futures, Climate change, CCAFS scenarios, Food security, Land use, Agricultural area, Food demand, Agricultural production, Climate impacts, Crop productivity, Livestock productivity, Economic models |
| Subjects: | Others > Food Production Others > Agriculture-Farming, Production, Technology, Economics Others > Climate Change Others > Food Security Others > African Agriculture Others > West Africa |
| Depositing User: | Mr Ramesh K |
| Date Deposited: | 01 Nov 2017 09:38 |
| Last Modified: | 12 Jun 2018 04:07 |
| URI: | http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/10255 |
| Official URL: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.002 |
| Projects: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Funders: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Acknowledgement: | The work presented in this article has been supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) with funds provided by the CGIAR Fund Council, Australia (ACIAR), European Union, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), New Zealand, Netherlands, Switzerland, UK and Thailand, the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) project, a CGIAR initiative led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (grant #OPP1009468), and the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). In addition to core project funding, this research benefitted from the European Commission FP7-funded project Healthy Futures (grant #266327). We sincerely thank the editor and the three anonymous reviewers of this paper for their thoughtful comments. We would also like to thank the participants in all of our scenario development and use processes for their active contributions to each process. Open Access funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
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