Performance evaluation of yield crop forecasting models using weather index regression analysis

Panwar, S and Singh, K N and Kumar, A and Paul, R K and Sarkar, S K and Gurung, B and Rathore, A (2017) Performance evaluation of yield crop forecasting models using weather index regression analysis. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 87 (2). pp. 270-272. ISSN 0019-5022

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Abstract

A crop forecast is a statement of the most likely magnitude of yield or production of a crop. It is made on the basis of known facts on a given date and it assumes that the weather conditions and damages during the remainder of the growing season will be about the same as the average of previous year. The present paper deals with use of non-linear regression analysis for developing wheat yield forecast model for Allahabad district (India). A novel statistical approach attempted in this study to use nonlinear models with different weather variables and their indices and compare them to identify a suitable forecasting model. Time series yield data of 40 years (1970-2010) and weather data for the year 1970-71 to 2009-10 have been utilized. The models have been used to forecast yield in the subsequent three years 2008-09 to 2009-10 (which were not included in model development). The approach provided reliable yield forecast about two months before harvest.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions:	UNSPECIFIED
CRP:	UNSPECIFIED
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Forecasting, Nonlinear regression model, Weather indices approach, Weather variables, Crop forecast, Crops yield forecast models, Forecasting yield, Wheat crop, Non-linear regression technique
Subjects:	Others > Crop Yield Others > Statistical Models Others > Wheat
Depositing User:	Mr Ramesh K
Date Deposited:	09 Aug 2017 04:24
Last Modified:	09 Aug 2017 04:24
URI:	http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/10136
Official URL:	http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/index.php/IJAgS/...
Projects:	UNSPECIFIED
Funders:	UNSPECIFIED
Acknowledgement:	UNSPECIFIED
Links:	Google Scholar

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