Adapting Nyando smallholder farming systems to climate change and variability through modeling

Tobias, O R and Gachene, C K K and Claessens, L (2017) Adapting Nyando smallholder farming systems to climate change and variability through modeling. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 12 (26). pp. 2178-2187. ISSN 1991-637X

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This study was done in Nyando, Kenya to model maize production under different climate scenarios and project the yields up to 2030 and 2050 using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) under rain fed conditions. Three maize varieties were used; Katumani Comp B as early maturing variety, Hybrid 511 as a medium maturing variety and Hybrid 614 as a late maturing variety. Global coupled model Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 (HadGEM2-ES) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 was used to downscale Nyando’s climate data for the years 2030 and 2050. Past climate data for 53 years and current data was obtained from Kisumu Meteorological station while crop growth and farm management data was obtained from 70 farmers in Nyando. Results showed a decrease in yields across the years from 2015, 2030 and 2050 under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Average simulated yields for 2015 were 2519 kg ha-1 while projected yields under RCP 4.5 were 2212 and 2081 kg ha-1 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Average yield projections under RCP 8.5 were 2184 and 1806 kg ha-1 for the years 2030 and 2050 consecutively. The study found out that temperatures will increase and rainfall duration will reduce. In addition, Katumani Comp B maize variety was not very much affected by these changes in temperatures and rainfall compared to H511 and H614.

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Research Program : East & Southern Africa
CRP: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), global coupled models, maize yield
Subjects: Others > Smallholder Farmers
Others > Smallholder Agriculture
Others > Farming Systems
Others > Climate Change
Depositing User: Mr Ramesh K
Date Deposited: 11 Jul 2017 09:09
Last Modified: 06 Mar 2018 07:14
Official URL:
Acknowledgement: UNSPECIFIED
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