An assessment of yield gains under climate change due to genetic modification of pearl millet

Singh, P and Boote, K J and Kadiyala, M D M and Nedumaran, S and Gupta, S K and Srinivas, K and Bantilan, M C S (2017) An assessment of yield gains under climate change due to genetic modification of pearl millet. Science of The Total Environment, 601-60. pp. 1226-1237. ISSN 00489697

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Abstract

Developing cultivars with traits that can enhance and sustain productivity under climate change will be an important climate smart adaptation option. The modified CSM-CERES-Pearl millet model was used to assess yield gains by modifying plant traits determining crop maturity duration, potential yield and tolerance to drought and heat in pearl millet cultivars grown at six locations in arid (Hisar, Jodhpur, Bikaner) and semi-arid (Jaipur, Aurangabad and Bijapur) tropical India and two locations in semi-arid tropical West Africa (Sadore in Niamey and Cinzana in Mali). In all the study locations the yields decreased when crop maturity duration was decreased by 10% both in current and future climate conditions; however, 10% increase in crop maturity significantly (p < 0.05) increased yields at Aurangabad and Bijapur, but not at other locations. Increasing yield potential traits by 10% increased yields under both the climate situations in India and West Africa. Drought tolerance imparted the lowest yield gain at Aurangabad (6%), the highest at Sadore (30%) and intermediate at the other locations under current climate. Under climate change the contribution of drought tolerance to the yield of cultivars either increased or decreased depending upon changes in rainfall of the locations. Yield benefits of heat tolerance substantially increased under climate change at most locations, having the greatest effects at Bikaner (17%) in India and Sadore (13%) in West Africa. Aurangabad and Bijapur locations had no yield advantage from heat tolerance due to their low temperature regimes. Thus drought and heat tolerance in pearl millet increased yields under climate change in both the arid and semi-arid tropical climates with greater benefit in relatively hotter environments. This study will assists the plant breeders in evaluating new promising plant traits of pearl millet for adapting to climate change at the selected locations and other similar environments.

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Research Program : Innovation Systems for the Drylands (ISD)
CRP: CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Cereals
CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change, Genetic traits, Millet model, Pearl Millet, Crop maturity duration, Crop yield, Drought, Pearl millet cultivars
Subjects: Others > Climate Adaptation
Mandate crops > Millets > Pearl Millet
Others > Crop Physiology
Others > Crop Yield
Others > Genetics and Genomics
Others > Climate Change
Others > Indian Agriculture
Others > West Africa
Depositing User: Mr Ramesh K
Date Deposited: 29 Jun 2017 09:07
Last Modified: 04 Jan 2018 10:09
URI: http://oar.icrisat.org/id/eprint/10064
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.002
Projects: UNSPECIFIED
Funders: Open Access funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Acknowledgement: This work was undertaken as a part of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Funding support for this study was provided by the CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Cereals (DC), CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, Global Futures Project funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (grant no. is OPP1009468), and USAID-ICRISAT Linkage Project. The first author is grateful to Drs. Peter Craufurd and Van Oostrom for providing the old data sets of ICRISAT on pearl millet for this study. The opinions expressed here belong to the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of PIM, DC, IFPRI, ICRISAT or CGIAR. Open Access funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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